Abstract
This study evaluates the uncertainty in speed-up factors predicted using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes equations to model flow over moderately complex forested terrain and considers its effect on the uncertainty in wind energy calculations. All simulations are solved using the open-source software openfoam v.2.4.0 with a modified k–ε turbulence closure. The forest drag effect is calculated with two models: a displacement height model and a canopy model that estimates the pressure loss due to the forest through analogy with porous media. Two years of concurrent wind data from three meteorological masts at a potential wind farm site in Canada are used for validation purposes. In all, these experimental data are compared with the predictions of four wind flow models: (A) a terrain only model, (B) a displacement height model, (C) a uniform forest canopy model, and (D) a non-uniform forest canopy model. Overall, the canopy models provide better agreement with the mean statistical results than the displacement height model. In this case, the 2.76% uncertainty in the speed-up factor associated with the wind flow predictions of the non-uniform forest distribution model leads to an uncertainty in the energy calculation of just 5.94%.
