The probability of failure of steel jacket platforms subjected to fatigue damage is computed by means of Monte Carlo simulations using limit state functions in which wave, wind, and deck loadings are expressed in terms of empirical functions of uncertain maximum wave height. Limit state functions associated with the base shear capacity of the jacket and the shear capacity of the deck legs were used. The sensitivity of the probability of failure to the coefficient of variation of resistance, of wave height, of resistance and loading biases, and to parameters in empirical loading functions, as well as the influence of the reserve strength ratio is analyzed using a simplified limit state function. Results from simulations are compared to those obtained with a formulation that relates the reserve strength ratio to the reliability index. An application to risk based inspection planning for extension of the service life of a platform is given.
Issue Section:
Research Papers
Keywords:
structural reliability,
jacket platform,
fatigue damage,
Monte Carlo simulation,
pushover analysis,
limit state functions,
risk based inspection,
failure analysis,
fatigue,
inspection,
loading,
marine systems,
Monte Carlo methods,
offshore installations,
reliability,
remaining life assessment,
steel
1.
Skjong
, R.
, 1985, “Reliability Based Optimization of Inspection Strategies
,” Proceedings of ICOSSAR 85
, Kobe, Japan
, Vol. III
, pp. 614
–618
.2.
Madsen
, H. O.
, Sørensen
, J. D.
, and Olesen
, R.
, 1989, “Optimal Inspection Planning for Fatigue Damage of Offshore Structures
,” Proceedings of ICOSSAR, 89
, San Francisco, CA
, Vol. 3
, pp. 2099
–2106
.3.
Faber
, M. H.
, Engelund
, S.
, Sørensen
, J. D.
, and Bloch
, A.
, 2000, “Simplified and Generic Risk Based Inspection Planning
,” Proceedings of the 19th Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering Conference
, New Orleans, LA
.4.
Moan
, T.
, Vårdal
, O. T.
, and Johannesen
, J. M.
, 2000, “Probabilistic Inspection Planning of Fixed Offshore Structures
,” Proceedings ICASP8
, Sydney, Australia
, pp. 191
–200
.5.
Straub
, D.
, and Faber
, M. H.
, 2006, “Computational Aspects of Risk Based Inspection Planning
,” Comput. Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng.
1093-9687, 21
(3
), pp. 179
–192
.6.
Kirkemo
, F.
, 1988, “Applications of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics to Offshore Structures
,” Appl. Mech. Rev.
0003-6900, 41
(2
), pp. 61
–84
.7.
Madsen
, H. O.
, Krenk
, S.
, and Lind
, N.
, 1986, Methods of Structural Safety
, Prentice-Hall
, Englewood Cliff, NJ
.8.
Montes-Iturrizaga
, R.
, and Heredia-Zavoni
, E.
, 2004, “A Bayesian Model for the Probability Distribution of Fatigue Damage in Tubular Joints
,” ASME J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng.
0892-7219, 126
(3
), pp. 243
–249
.9.
Silva-González
, F. L.
, and Heredia-Zavoni
, E.
, 2004, “Effect of Uncertainties on the Reliability of Fatigue Damaged Systems
,” Proceedings of 23th Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering Conference
, Vancouver, Canada
, Paper No. OMAE2004-51485.10.
Ayala
, E.
, 2001, “Probabilistic Analysis of Ultimate Strength Capacity of Damaged Structures
,” M.Sc. thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway.11.
PEMEX, 2000, “
Diseño y Evaluación de Plataformas Marinas Fijas en la Sonda de Campeche
,” NRF-003-PEMEX-2000, Mexico DF, Mexico.12.
API, 1993, “
Recommended Practice for Planning, Designing and Constructing Fixed Offshore Platforms
,” API RP-2A, American Petroleum Institute, 20th ed.13.
Sigurdsson
, G.
, Skallerud
, B.
, Skjong
, R.
, and Amdahl
, J.
, 1993, “Probabilistic Collapse Analysis of Jackets
,” Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference On Structural Safety and Reliability
, ICOSSAR, Insbruck, Austria
, Vol. 1
, pp. 535
–544
.14.
Hellan
, O.
, 1995, “Nonlinear Pushover and Cyclic Analyses in Ultimate Limit State Design and Reassessment of Tubular Steel Offshore Structures
,” thesis, Deparment of Marine Structures, The Norwegian Institute of Technology, The University of Trondheim, Trondheim.15.
Oceanweather Inc., 1996, “
Informe Final: Actualización de Datos Hindcast Meteorológicos y Oceanográficos Normales y Extremos de la Bahía de Campeche
,” presented to Brown and Root International, Inc.16.
Health & Safety Executive, 1998, “
Review of Wave in Deck Load Assessment Procedure
,” Offshore Technology Report No. OTO 97073.17.
Straub
, D.
, and Faber
, M. H.
, 2003, “Risk Based Acceptance Criteria for Joints Subject to Fatigue Deterioration
,” Proceedings of 22th Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering Conference
, Cancun, Mexico
, Paper No. OMAE2003–37224.18.
Bea
, R.
, 1997, “Risk Based Oceanographic Criteria for Design and Requalification of Platforms in the Bay of Campeche
.” Report to PEMEX and IMP, Marine Technology & Management Group, University of California at Berkeley, CA.19.
Dharmavasan
, S.
, Peers
, S. M. C.
, Faber
, M. H.
, Dijkstra
, O.
, Cervetto
, D.
, and Manfredi
, E.
, 1994, “Reliability Based Inspection Scheduling for Fixed Offshore Platforms
,” Proceedings of 22th Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering Conference
, Houston, TX
.20.
Moan
, T.
, Vårdal
, O. L.
, and Johannesen
, M.
, 2000, “Probabilistic Inspection Planning of Fixed Offshore Structures
,” Applications of Statistics and Probability
, R. E.
Melchers
and M. G.
Steward
eds., Balkema
, Rotterdam
.21.
Enevoldsen
, I.
, and Sørensen
, J. D.
, 1994, “Reliability-Based Optimization in Structural Engineering
,” Struct. Safety
0167-4730, 15
, pp. 169
–196
.22.
Moan
, T.
, Hovde
, G. O.
, and Blanker
, A. M.
, 1993, “Reliability-Based Fatigue Design Criteria for Offshore Structures Considering the Effect of Inspection and Repair
,” Proceedings of 25th Annual Offshore Technology Conference
.23.
PROFAST, 2002, “
Profast Theory, Probabilistic Fatigue Analysis, DNV Software
,” Report No. 95-7005.Copyright © 2008
by American Society of Mechanical Engineers
You do not currently have access to this content.
