Uncertainty is a real and unavoidable part of the design process. Uncertainty in the area of manufacturing cost estimation can have a negative impact on the desirability of design alternatives, and some might be deemed “too risky” for further consideration in spite of potential benefits. Expert designers obtain a sense of what level of risk is acceptable for different types of applications. Expert systems for design thus might include a set of necessary and reasonable assumptions which reflect a particular expert’s attitude towards risk and uncertainty. These assumptions may not be applicable for all users. In this paper we present an expert system for design which explicitly addresses the individual user’s attitude towards uncertainty. We have developed a spreadsheet user-interface for assessing this attitude through a utility function, and for linking those results to a heuristic rule base. The heuristic rule base contains only technical expertise used to determine a set of feasible alternatives, while the process of evaluating and ranking these feasible alternatives is driven by the user’s individual preferences and risk-taking profile.
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June 1994
Research Papers
Incorporating End-User’s Attitudes Towards Uncertainty into an Expert System
Yun Qi Tian,
Yun Qi Tian
Decision Systems Laboratory, Department of General Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801
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D. L. Thurston,
D. L. Thurston
Decision Systems Laboratory, Department of General Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801
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J. V. Carnahan
J. V. Carnahan
Decision Systems Laboratory, Department of General Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801
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Yun Qi Tian
Decision Systems Laboratory, Department of General Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801
D. L. Thurston
Decision Systems Laboratory, Department of General Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801
J. V. Carnahan
Decision Systems Laboratory, Department of General Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801
J. Mech. Des. Jun 1994, 116(2): 493-500 (8 pages)
Published Online: June 1, 1994
Article history
Received:
April 1, 1992
Revised:
May 1, 1993
Online:
June 2, 2008
Citation
Tian, Y. Q., Thurston, D. L., and Carnahan, J. V. (June 1, 1994). "Incorporating End-User’s Attitudes Towards Uncertainty into an Expert System." ASME. J. Mech. Des. June 1994; 116(2): 493–500. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.2919406
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