Simulation of Interactions and Emergent Failure Behavior During Complex System Design

Emergent behavior is a unique aspect of complex systems, where they exhibit behavior that is more complex than the sum of the behavior of their constituent parts. This behavior includes the propagation of faults between parts, and requires information on how the parts are connected. These parts can include software, electronic and mechanical components, hence requiring a capability to track emergent fault propagation paths as they cross the boundaries of technical disciplines. Prior work has introduced the functional failure identification and propagation (FFIP) simulation framework, which reveals the propagation of abnormal flow states and can thus be used to infer emergent system-wide behavior that may compromise the reliability of the system. An advantage of FFIP is that it is used to model early phase designs, before high cost commitments are made and before high fidelity models are available. This has also been a weakness in previous research on FFIP, since results depend on arbitrary choices for the values of model parameters and timing of critical events. Previously, FFIP has used a discrete set of flow state values and a simple behavioral logic; this has had the advantage of limiting the range of possible parameter values, but it has not been possible to model continuous process dynamics. In this paper, the FFIP framework has been extended to support continuous flow levels and linear modeling of component behavior based on first principles. Since this extension further expands the range of model parameter values, methods and tools for studying the impact of parameter value changes are introduced. The result is an evaluation of how the FFIP results are impacted by changes in the model parameters and the timing of critical events. The method is demonstrated on a boiling water reactor model (limited to the coolant recirculation and steam outlets) in order to focus the analysis of emergent fault behavior that could not have been identified with previously published versions of the FFIP framework.