Abstract
The applicability of the High-Order Spectral Method (HOSM) as a very fast non-linear method for deterministic short-term wave prediction is discussed within this paper. The focus lies on the systematic experimental validation of the HOSM in order to identify and evaluate possible areas of application as well as limitations of use. For this purpose, irregular sea states with varying parameters such as wave steepness and underlying wave spectrum are addressed by numerical simulations and model tests in the controlled environment of a seakeeping basin. In addition, the influence of the propagation distance is discussed. For the evaluation of the accuracy of the HOSM prediction, the surface similarity parameter (SSP) is utilized, allowing a quantitative validation of the results. The results obtained are compared to linear wave prediction to discuss the pros and cons of a non-linear deterministic short-term wave prediction. In conclusion, this paper shows that the non-linear deterministic wave prediction based on HOSM leads to a substantial improvement of the prediction quality for moderate and steep irregular wave trains in terms of individual waves and prediction distance.
