Estimating the Thermal Properties of a Calorimeter Using Hierarchical Bayesian Inference With MCMC

The accurate determination of the specific heat by placing of a sample in a bath of liquid and measuring the temperature change of the bath and the sample is dependent upon estimation of the heat lost to or gained from the calorimeter. This heat transfer is a complex function of the thermal characteristics of the calorimeter, the initial and ambient conditions, and the convective heat transfer between the bath and the calorimeter walls. This paper describes the estimation of the heat transfer and the determination of the uncertainties in the computed sample specific heat by using Bayesian inference.