The Forming Limit Diagram is used in circle grid analysis to check the safety of a formed panel. The shape of the Forming Limit Diagram for steel is always the same, it is only the vertical position of the diagram that varies depending on the value of FLD0. For steel, FLD0 is widely accepted to be dependent on the thickness and n value which are both inherently indeterministic, and can exhibit variations, small or large, depending on the manufacturing process. To account for this variability in determining the safety of a formed panel, the engineering practice in many companies is to use a minimum value for FLD0 called Worst Case Scenario, because it is calculated using minimum values for both t and n. This paper presents a different and better approach to calculate the minimum value of FLD0. The approach is based on probabilistic concepts, and allows the calculation of a minimum value for FLD0 that is related to a certain probability of occurrence. The derivation technique used in the paper is borrowed from Reliability Analysis and tailored to solve our problem. The derivation leads to a simple formula that can be easily used. The minimum value of FLD0 calculated according to the paper is more accurate than the Worst Case Scenario, and provides better cost saving since it is always greater than the Worst Case Scenario value.

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